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 Blogger : greg
Name : Greg Burton
Gender : Male
| | ARCHIVES |  May 2009 |
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Houston housing market
| | Wednesday, May 06 2009 | |
| http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/business/6409221.html
Now is best time to buy home, economist says
By NANCY SARNOFF
The single-family housing market may prove to be the strongest of all
of Houstons real estate sectors as the area plods through the economic
downturn and global recession, said local economist Barton Smith at his
annual real estate symposium Tuesday.
Even though the recession is just now beginning to unfold locally, this
could be the best time to buy a home, Smith said.
Prices -- already down 2 percent -- may fall some more, but historically
low interest rates wont last much beyond this year.
Im more bullish on the single-family market than any other, said the
University of Houston economics professor and director of the Institute
for Regional Forecasting. Smith, who spoke to a full ballroom at the
downtown Hyatt Regency, also announced his retirement from UH and the
institute after next springs symposium.
Home builders were the first to get hit in Houston as the credit crunch
and stringent lending standards made it hard for consumers to get a
mortgage and builders to get construction financing.
They were also quick to respond to stress in the economy by cutting
back on the number of new homes they built.
While the market correction isnt over, builder Will Holder said new
home supply is getting tighter as builders make deals to unload unsold
homes.
Holder said traffic at his new home communities is the highest its
been in two years.
Its clear they havent given up on the dream, he said.
But increased shopping isnt translating into as many sales, as
Houstonians worry about the economy getting worse and the stability of
their jobs.
Indeed, the labor market poses a big threat to the economy.
Over two years, Smith predicts about 60,000 job losses will hit the
area as this region joins the nation in shedding jobs.
While thats nowhere near the severity of job losses during the 1980s,
it will be the most Houston has seen since that time.
With the exception of government, virtually all sectors will experience
some job losses, Smith said.
The energy sector, which propped up the economy throughout last year,
will be hit hard.
The global economic meltdown shrank demand for oil and gas, causing
prices to plummet and exploration to slow.
Houston has lost its energy cushion, Smith said.
Other predictions from Smiths presentation:
The apartment market will start to improve as fewer renters leave to
buy homes.
The office market will get worse, but the declines wont be dramatic.
The retail market will be slower to recover with new supply coming
online as retailers retrench.
Industrial space will be affected by a decrease in manufacturing
employment.
nancy.sarnoff@chron.com
Brought to you by the HoustonChronicle.com |
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